WHERE THE PRESIDENT STANDS – AT 11:38 A.M. ET:  President Trump retains his position in the Rasmussen daily tracker, despite the continuing onslaught from the press and the abuse from the White House Correspondents Association dinner.  From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. 

The latest figures include 34% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -6. (see trends).

COMMENT:  Other polls place the president lower, but Rasmussen tracks likely voters, rather than registered voters or people who just answer the phone.  It was one of the most accurate polls in predicting the 2016 presidential election result.

It's clear that, at least for now, the president's approval is stabilizing.  He has been as high as 51% in Rasmussen in recent weeks, and as low as 47%.  That isn't bad.  By some measures, he's equal to or ahead of where Obama was at this point in his presidency.

A major breakthrough with North Korea will be helpful to the president, but by how much remains to be seen.  There is an old assumption in presidential politics that the economy, rather than foreign policy, is the main factor in how people vote. 

And then there is the Mueller investigation.  I wouldn't be shocked if Mueller comes out with something right before the election.  Special counsels have done that in the past. 

The president's party usually loses in the first midterm Congressional contest following the presidential election.  Republicans, who work hard and creatively to lose elections, are expecting losses.   They're not terribly aggressive.  Here in New York Republicans only campaign on weekends if the weather isn't good enough for golf.  If Trump can inject the party with a true fighting spirit, losses might be cut dramatically, and there might even be pleasant surprises.  Trump knows that if the nutty Dems take the House, they will almost certainly try to impeach him. 

May 1,  2018